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Product Opportunity Assessment
For product leaders and founders deciding whether an idea deserves the next stage of effort, before building begins.
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In brief
This assessment shows how much of a product opportunity rests on evidence and what to test next. Your answers about the problem, the buyer, your position and a first version give an evidence band, and the two weakest areas come with steps a named role can start next week. It predicts nothing.
Step 1 of 4: Problem
0 of 16 answered
- Problem (current step)
- Buyer (not yet reached)
- Position (not yet reached)
- Feasibility (not yet reached)
Problem
The problem is what your buyers are trying to get done and what it costs them today. An idea that rests on a problem seen in the people who have it can survive a change of solution; one that rests on assumption cannot.
Buyer
The buyer is whoever pays, decides and can block, and may not be the person who uses the product. Interest turns into a sale only through them, and what they have done counts for more than what they have said.
Position
Position is the reason a buyer would pick this product over what they already use, including the spreadsheet and the in-house workaround. It decides whether the idea holds once others notice the same opening.
Feasibility
Feasibility asks whether a small first version can test the core of the idea, with the data, skills and permissions it needs. It sets how cheaply you can find out that the idea is wrong.
Answer the 4 questions left on this step to go on.
Your result
Where your points are
Your two weakest areas
Your strongest area
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What counts as evidence for a product idea, and what this assessment leaves out
An idea feels most convincing when it has been described best, which is seldom when it has been tested hardest. This assessment keeps the two apart. It asks about the problem, the buyer, your position against what buyers already use, and the first version you could build. Within each it asks what your claim rests on: your own assumption, what friendly people said, what people who would pay said, or what they did.
It does not size a market, forecast demand or value the idea. It says how much of your case has been seen in the people who would pay, and where the unexamined parts are.
An idea is worth about what its first buyers were prepared to give up for it.
Praise and commitment look alike until someone is asked.
| Evidence level | How it shows | A typical example |
|---|---|---|
| Assumed | The team believes it, and nobody outside has been asked | A slide stating the buyer's pain |
| Thin | Friendly or informal views, or the team's own checks | A warm call with someone who already likes the team |
| Partly shown | People with the problem gave specific accounts, or a test is defined | Interviews about the last time it happened |
| Shown | People who would pay did something that cost them | A paid pilot, a letter of intent, staff time given to a trial |
Who should answer, and why not to answer alone
The person who proposed the idea knows best what has been done and is least placed to judge it, so that person answers first. Then ask someone with no stake in it to answer from what they have seen. Where the two sets differ, belief has run ahead of observation.
The sitting is short, and the questions are about things you either have or have not. If you cannot decide whether a conversation counts as structured, it probably does not.
Reading the band without mistaking it for a forecast
The bands run from an idea that rests on belief to one that rests on what buyers have done. The top band is not a prediction, because evidence tells you what you know and not what the market will do. Each band also names the failure that tends to come next, such as a first version that grows into the whole product before the open questions are answered.
Spend your attention on the two areas with the smallest share of points. Each has steps that name a role and the thing that exists at the end.
Run the assessment first, or go straight to the test
Run it first when
- The idea is competing for the next round of funding
- The sponsor believes in it more than anyone has checked
- The team is about to begin design work
Skip it when
- The idea is a small experiment that costs less than asking
- Buyers have already committed and the question is delivery
- You need a market size for an investor, which needs research
The trade is a short sitting against the risk of building on a belief. A low band costs you some comfort and may spare you the build.
What to test in the week after the result
- 01
Write the buyer's chain
Set down who feels the problem, who approves spending and who can block, marking each link heard or assumed. The assumed links are your interview list.
- 02
Ask for a cost
Request something small that costs the buyer: a sample of data, an hour of a team, a written intent. Their answer is the evidence.
- 03
Define the smallest test
Write the one question the first version must answer, then ask the person who would build it to size it apart from the person who proposed it.
- 04
Name the stopping rule
Agree the result that would end the work before it starts, so the next stage of effort has an exit.
What do people ask before using the product opportunity assessment?
If we reach the top band, will the product sell?
Not necessarily. The top band means the problem, buyer, position and first version rest on evidence from buyers. Evidence tells you what you know, not what the market will do. The tool does not size a market or forecast demand, and a low band is no verdict.
What counts as proof that a buyer wants the product?
What they did, not what they said. Praise and commitment look alike until someone is asked. The strongest evidence is a buyer doing something that costs them, such as a paid pilot, a signed letter of intent or named staff time given to a trial.
Why should someone other than the founder answer too?
The person who proposed the idea knows best what has been done and is least placed to judge it, and people score their own ideas generously. Ask someone with no stake to answer from what they have seen. Where answers differ, belief has run ahead of observation.
Is it worth running on a small idea?
Not if the idea is a small experiment that costs less than asking. Skip it too when buyers have already committed and the question is delivery. It earns its time when the idea is competing for the next round of funding, or the team is about to begin design work.
Related
What would a buyer give up for your idea today?
Describe what you are weighing in a few lines. A senior practitioner replies with a suggested first conversation.